The upcoming week is poised to bring significant clarity to the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cut in November, as Chairman Jerome Powell addresses economists and the government releases fresh employment numbers. Powell is set to discuss the US economic outlook at a National Association for Business Economics conference on Monday, providing valuable insights into the Fed’s thinking.
The highly anticipated September jobs report, due out on Friday, is expected to show a moderate labor market, with payrolls increasing by 146,000, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. This would be similar to the August increase and would leave the three-month average job growth near its weakest since mid-2019. The jobless rate is likely to remain at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are projected to have risen 3.8% from a year earlier.
Recent labor unrest, including the Boeing Co. factory workers’ strike and the looming dockworkers’ strike, may impact the jobs report, making it potentially the last clean reading of the US employment market before the Fed’s November meeting.
In addition to the jobs report, job openings data on Tuesday is expected to show August vacancies holding close to the lowest level since the start of 2021. Economists will closely watch the quit rate and dismissals to gauge the extent of cooling in labor demand.
Industry surveys, including the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and services indexes, will provide further insight into private-sector hiring. Meanwhile, Canadian home sales data will offer a glimpse into the real estate market following a series of rate cuts by the central bank.
Globally, data is expected to show slowing inflation in the euro zone, Turkey, and South Korea, while business surveys in China will be closely watched. In Asia, China will release a slew of purchasing manager indexes, and Japan’s Tankan survey will provide insight into business sentiment.
In Europe, euro-zone data will take center stage, with inflation reports from Germany, Italy, and the overall region. The European Central Bank’s appearances, including President Christine Lagarde’s testimony to the European Parliament, will be closely watched.
Monetary decisions are scheduled in various regions, including Mozambique, Iceland, Poland, and Tanzania, while Colombian policymakers are expected to deliver a seventh consecutive rate cut. Brazilian data, including purchasing manager indexes and industrial production, will show the economy’s momentum heading toward year-end.
Leave a Reply