**China’s Economic Growth Rate Expected to Decline Despite Stimulus Measures**
The World Bank has predicted that China’s economic growth rate will continue to slow down in 2025, despite a temporary boost from recent stimulus measures. The international lender estimates that China’s growth rate will drop to 4.3% next year, down from a projected 4.8% in 2024.
The stimulus measures, which have mainly focused on monetary policy, have boosted investor confidence and prompted a stock market rally. However, the World Bank’s 2025 growth projection remains unchanged from earlier projections due to concerns about consumer spending, property market weakness, an aging population, and rising global tensions.
According to Aaditya Mattoo, East Asia and Pacific chief economist at the World Bank, the “fiscal dimension” of the stimulus measures remains undefined, making it difficult to project the impact on the economy. Mattoo also highlighted the need for deeper structural reforms to lift longer-term growth.
The World Bank’s report also noted that the rest of the East Asia and Pacific region will grow at 4.7% this year and rise to 4.9% next year, driven by expected export recovery and better financial conditions. However, the region will need to find more domestic drivers of growth as China slows down.
In a separate interview, James Sullivan, head of Asia-Pacific equity research at JPMorgan, expressed skepticism about the stimulus measures, saying that they may only benefit the supply side of the economy rather than boosting consumer demand. Hui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, also emphasized the importance of the size of any additional stimulus package and the outcome of the November U.S. presidential election in determining China’s growth rate next year.
Overall, the World Bank’s report suggests that China’s economic growth rate is expected to decline further in 2025, despite temporary boosts from stimulus measures, and that deeper structural reforms are needed to lift longer-term growth.
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