The Future of the Automotive Industry: A Presidential Election Perspective
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the automotive industry has become a critical topic of discussion. Michigan, home to the Motor City and 1.1 million automotive jobs, is a crucial swing state that can make or break a candidate’s chances of winning the White House. The two main candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, have made Michigan a key focus of their campaigns, with both sides vying for the support of undecided voters.
Electric Vehicles: A Key Battleground
One of the most significant issues facing the automotive industry is the future of electric vehicles (EVs). Harris and Trump have expressed vastly different views on the matter, with Harris generally supporting EVs and related incentives, while Trump has condemned them as being forced upon consumers and potentially ruinous for the US automotive industry. The outcome of the election could have a major impact on the development and adoption of EVs in the US.
Trade and Tariffs: A Complex Issue
Another critical issue facing the automotive industry is trade and tariffs. Both Harris and Trump have expressed a desire to review the US-North American trade deal, with Trump threatening to increase tariffs dramatically to prevent Chinese automakers from importing cars into the US. Harris has called Trump’s tariff proposals “a sales tax on the American people,” but has not outlined specific changes she would make to the current tariff structure.
Labor: A Concern for Automakers
Automakers are also concerned about the potential impact of the election on labor relations. A Harris win could continue to mean increased power for organized labor, particularly the United Auto Workers (UAW) union. The UAW has been a driving force behind Harris’ election campaign in Michigan and other states, and its leaders have been vocal in their criticism of Trump.
A Divided Industry
The automotive industry is divided on many of these issues, with some companies and executives supporting Harris and others backing Trump. Non-US-based automakers, which account for 48% of US production and 52% of USMCA production, may be more positively leveraged to a Harris win, according to some analysts. Meanwhile, legacy automakers such as General Motors, Ford Motor, and Chrysler parent Stellantis may benefit more from a Trump victory.
A Waiting Game
As the election approaches, the automotive industry is in a state of limbo, waiting to see which candidate will emerge victorious and what implications this will have for the industry. As one executive noted, “Depending on the election in the US, we may have mandates; we may not. Am I going to make any decisions on future investments right now? Obviously not. We’re waiting to see.”
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