Blockbuster Showdown: Which Movie Will Reign Supreme at the Box Office?
The Battle for Premium Screens
This November, three highly anticipated blockbusters will clash at the box office, each vying for audience attention and premium screen real estate. Universal’s “Wicked,” Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” and Disney’s “Moana 2” will debut within five days of each other, right around the Thanksgiving holiday. With moviegoers becoming increasingly discerning about how they spend their money and what films they’re willing to leave the couch for, the question remains: which blockbuster will benefit most from premium ticket sales?
The Rise of Premium Large Format Screens
Premium large format screens (PLFs), such as IMAX, Dolby, Screen X, and 4DX, offer elevated viewing experiences with higher ticket prices. These screens account for 9.1% of the domestic box office, around $600 million in 2024. According to Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore, “The importance of the growth of PLFs as a percentage of the annual box office over the past few years cannot be overstated.”
Audiences Crave Immersive Experiences
Audiences are gravitating towards the biggest, best, and most immersive auditoriums, says Shawn Robbins, director of analytics for Fandango’s movie division. Premium ticket prices average around $16.71 a piece, an 8% increase since 2021. Standard tickets, meanwhile, are around $11.82 each, a 7.4% jump from 2021 prices.
The Investment in Cinema Upgrades
Recognizing the growing importance of PLFs, the National Association of Theatre Owners revealed in September that the eight largest theater chains in North America would invest more than $2.2 billion to modernize and upgrade cinema locations. This investment will enhance laser projectors, immersive sound systems, seating, concession offerings, and family entertainment options.
Franchise Films Dominate PLF Box Office
Films like Universal’s “Oppenheimer,” Disney’s “Avatar: The Way of Water,” and Warner Bros.’ “Dune” and “Dune: Part Two” have captured a significant portion of the PLF box office during their runs. These films were shot with specialty cameras to be seen on premium large format screens, and audiences have responded accordingly.
The Thanksgiving Showdown
As “Wicked,” “Gladiator II,” and “Moana 2” debut, the question remains: how will the premium screen divisions be split? Studios and movie theater operators strike deals designating how many theaters a movie will show in, how often, and on what kinds of screens. As new movies debut, those arrangements shift, making it unclear how the PLF screens will be split once all three movies are in theaters at the same time.
Box Office Projections
Box office analysts have a wide-ranging read on what “Wicked” could do during its domestic opening weekend, with predictions ranging from $85 million to $150 million. “Gladiator II” is expected to tally between $60 million and $80 million, while “Moana 2” is expected to snare more than $100 million for its full five-day domestic debut.
Word of Mouth Matters
Ultimately, word of mouth on a movie itself can still drive consumer choice to spend their money on movie tickets and popcorn. After an initial burst of strong reception and a premium screen footprint at release, certain movies transcend format preference, and casual audiences will be convinced to buy a ticket regardless of format.
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