Markets Shift as Election Uncertainty Rises
Investors are reassessing their bets on the US presidential election, driving the dollar down and oil up. The Mexican peso led gains among major currencies, while Treasury futures and Asian shares rose.
Polls Suggest Tight Race
A recent poll by the Des Moines Register shows Kamala Harris with a narrow lead in Iowa, a state Donald Trump has won in previous elections. However, other surveys indicate a photo finish, with voters narrowly split both nationally and across pivotal swing states.
Treasury Yields and Dollar Gauge Retreat
The dollar gauge and 10-year Treasury yields had reached their highest levels since July, driven by investor optimism about a second Trump term. However, concerns about the federal deficit and inflation are undermining Treasuries.
Election Uncertainty Clouds Market Outlook
“It’s impossible to call at this point,” says Bill Maldonado, CEO of Eastspring Investments. “We’ve heard Trump talking about tariffs and other measures, but do we really know what’s going to get implemented in what manner? It’s almost impossible to position for it.”
Central Banks Take Center Stage
This week, central banks in the US, UK, and Australia will make key decisions that will shape trading across financial markets. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, while the Bank of England may lower its benchmark rate by a quarter point.
Oil and Gold Rise
West Texas Intermediate crude rose nearly 2% after OPEC+ delayed its December production increase. In China, officials unveiled steps to attract foreign investment, allowing individuals to provide capital for publicly traded firms as strategic investors.
Key Events This Week
- India HSBC Manufacturing PMI
- US factory orders
- Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI
- China’s Standing Committee of National People’s Congress meets
- Australia rate decision
- US Presidential Election
- Brazil rate decision
- ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks
Market Moves
- Stocks: S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, Nikkei 225 futures rose 1.3%
- Currencies: Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%, euro rose 0.6%, Japanese yen rose 0.8%
- Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin was little changed, Ether rose 0.3%
- Bonds: Australia’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points
- Commodities: West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.9%, spot gold was little changed
Leave a Reply