Uncertainty Looms Over Ukraine’s Future Amid US Presidential Election
As the United States prepares for its presidential election, Ukraine holds its breath, knowing that the outcome could significantly impact its ongoing struggle against Russian aggression. The country has relied heavily on international aid, particularly from the US, to sustain its military efforts and economy.
A Delicate Balance of Power
The latest polls suggest a tight race between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. For Ukraine, the stakes are high, as a Trump administration is likely to be more hostile towards granting military aid, while a Harris administration may struggle to convince US lawmakers to provide sufficient financial backing.
Funding Fatigue Sets In
After almost three years of conflict, funding fatigue is becoming increasingly apparent among Ukraine’s biggest military supporters, including the US. Despite public displays of support from the White House and NATO, there are concerns that future aid could be cut.
Ukraine’s Reliance on International Partners
Ukraine relies heavily on its international partners for military, humanitarian, and financial aid to maintain its economic stability and military capabilities. The Kiel Institute of the World Economy estimates that the US has spent nearly $108 billion on aid since the start of the war, while EU member states and institutions have contributed $175.47 billion.
A Crucial Factor: Congressional Dominance
The outcome of the US congressional elections will play a significant role in determining the extent of support Ukraine receives. If the Democrats dominate Congress, they may be able to push through more substantial aid packages, whereas a Republican-dominated Congress could lead to reduced funding.
Trump’s Stance on Ukraine
Donald Trump has hinted that he would pull the plug on military aid to Ukraine, suggesting that he would stop the war within 24 hours of being elected. Analysts believe that Trump sees blocking funding as a way to forcibly end the conflict. His running mate, J.D. Vance, is explicitly opposed to further aid, advocating for Ukraine to strike a peace deal with Russia and cede land to Moscow.
Harris’s Pledge to Support Ukraine
While a Harris administration would likely be more supportive of Ukraine, there are concerns that even she may struggle to convince US lawmakers to provide sufficient funding. The exact meaning of her pledge to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes” remains unclear, leaving many wondering what a Ukrainian victory looks like and whether there is a limit to US aid.
G7’s Efforts to “Trump-Proof” Aid
In an effort to ensure continued support for Ukraine, the G7 group of industrialized countries has agreed to provide a $50 billion loan, backed by frozen Russian assets. The loan is expected to be disbursed before the end of the year, effectively before any new US administration can reverse the agreement.
The Role of Europe in Supporting Ukraine
If the US pulls back on funding, Europe will be expected to support Ukraine going forward. This raises questions about the use of frozen Russian central bank assets, which are largely held in Europe. Some experts argue that these assets should be seized and allocated to Ukraine to help it continue fighting against Russia.
A Precarious Future for Ukraine
Regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, Ukraine faces a precarious future amid waning Western support and funding fatigue. Analysts agree that the immediate peril for Ukraine comes from the 2024 US presidential election, with a Trump win potentially leading to a negotiated settlement that could compromise Ukraine’s sovereignty and security.
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