China’s Struggling Birth Rate: A Complex Issue
Easing Policies, But No Solution in Sight
China’s efforts to boost its plummeting birth rate have been met with limited success. Despite relaxing its one-child policy nearly a decade ago, the country’s birth rate continues to decline, with a record low of 9.02 million newborns last year. The number of new marriage registrations also dropped by 25% year on year in the third quarter, indicating a total of 6.4 million for the year, the lowest since 1979.
Supporting Families, Not Inducing a “Birth Spurt”
According to Lauren Johnston, associate professor of China Studies Center at the University of Sydney, China’s policies have focused on supporting families and making it easier for those who want to have a second or third child. Recent measures, such as subsidies and tax breaks for households with children under the age of 3, are a small step in a long-run agenda.
The Legacy of the One-Child Policy
The “mental hangover” from the one-child policy has fundamentally changed young people’s perception of families, says Harry Murphy Cruise, economist at Moody’s Analytics. Slower economic growth has also led young people to delay or second-guess plans to start a family.
No Silver Bullet
Lifting fertility rates is an incredibly difficult task, and there is no single solution. World Bank data shows that China’s fertility rate, defined as births per woman, was 1.2 in 2022, below 1.7 in the U.S., which has benefited from a more open immigration policy.
Uncertainty and Income Concerns
An increasingly pressing factor for families in China is uncertainty about income for raising a child. China’s economy has slowed down, and crackdowns on various industries have hit hiring. The youth unemployment rate rose to a record high of 18.8% in August.
Urbanization and Falling Birth Rates
Scholars have noted the link between urbanization and falling birth rates. The “hectic and stressful work schedule” in big cities tends to discourage marriage and births.
Inadequate Incentives
There appears to be a lack of proper incentives aimed at boosting birth rates. Local authorities have struggled financially, and prior policies have been inconsistent and inadequate. To turn around the falling birth rates, China needs a combination of strong direct financial incentives, particularly subsidies and benefits for housing.
Leave a Reply