Market Pulse: Nvidia’s Earnings Report Set to Rock the Boat
The countdown has begun for Nvidia Corp.’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) highly anticipated earnings report, slated to release on Wednesday. The event is expected to send shockwaves across the U.S. stock market, with far-reaching implications for investors and speculators alike.
A Barometer for Market Sentiment
Nvidia’s dominance in AI-driven technology has transformed its earnings into a benchmark for overall market sentiment. Its influence on the stock market is unparalleled, with the company accounting for 20% of the S&P 500’s total returns over the past year. According to Bank of America’s derivatives analyst Gonzalo Asis, Nvidia is expected to drive nearly 25% of the S&P 500’s EPS growth in the third quarter.
Ripple Effects Expected
Whether Nvidia beats or misses expectations, the repercussions will likely extend far beyond its ticker symbol. The options market implies a potential 1.05% move in the S&P 500, surpassing the expected impact of key economic data releases like the Non-Farm Payroll and Consumer Price Index. For Nvidia shares themselves, the implied one-day move is a staggering 12.5%.
Hedging Against Market Turbulence
Bank of America recommends an option strategy using put spreads on the Nasdaq-100 ETF, the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), to hedge against broader market risks tied to Nvidia’s performance. Specifically, the QQQ 22Nov 490-480 put spreads are priced at $2 and could offer a 5x payout if the Nasdaq-100 falls by roughly 3.3% this week.
Nvidia’s Earnings Track Record
Data from Benzinga Pro reveals that over the last 12 quarters, Nvidia has exceeded earnings-per-share (EPS) expectations 10 times and missed revenue expectations only once. On average, Nvidia shares moved 5.3% in the single trading day following its earnings release.
Recent Earnings Performance
Here’s a snapshot of Nvidia’s recent earnings performance:
| Fiscal Quarter | Date Announced | Surprise % EPS | Surprise % Revenue | 1-Day % NVDA Move |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| Q2-2025 | 8/28/24 | 6.25% | 4.73% | -6.38% |
| Q1-2025 | 5/22/24 | 2.86% | 5.66% | 9.32% |
| Q4-2024 | 2/21/24 | 11.45% | 7.19% | 16.40% |
|… |… |… |… |… |
As the market braces for Nvidia’s earnings report, one thing is certain – the outcome will have significant implications for investors and the broader market.
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