Market Optimism Abounds as 2024 Comes to a Close
As we enter the final stretch of 2024, the stock market’s technical landscape is painting a rosy picture. With few exceptions, Wall Street experts are united in their bullish outlook, making it challenging to build a convincing bearish case.
Consensus Points to Continued Growth
Research teams from top banks, brokerages, and research firms have crunched the numbers, and the consensus forecast for the end of 2025 or the 2025 high is a range of 6,500 to 7,000 on the S&P 500. This follows an impressive 58% surge since December 30, 2022. Another year of 8%-16% gains would be a welcome bonus.
A Year of Unprecedented Stability
The S&P 500 has experienced remarkable stability, with its largest pullback since late October 2023 being a mere 8.5% in July and August 2024. Notably, there hasn’t been a typical 10% correction in over a year.
December’s Historical Performance
Studies examining the performance of the prior 11 months reveal that when entering December with a 25% or greater return, the average S&P 500 gain is 1.6% since 1927. While some studies may be taken with a grain of salt due to selective analysis, the overall trend is hard to ignore.
All-Time Highs Across the Board
It’s rare to find a major index that isn’t at an all-time high, with most trading above a rising 200-day average. Furthermore, 70% to 77% of stocks across small- to mega-cap indices are thriving.
A Strong Foundation for 2025
As we look ahead to 2025, the current market conditions suggest a solid foundation for continued growth. While past performance is no guarantee of future success, the collective optimism of Wall Street experts and the market’s technical strength make a compelling case for a bullish 2025.
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