College Enrollment Takes a Hit: Fewer High School Students Pursue Four-Year Degrees
The latest research reveals a concerning trend in higher education: fewer high school students are enrolling in four-year colleges. According to a new analysis by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, the number of 18-year-old college freshmen decreased by 5% this fall compared to last year, with four-year colleges experiencing the largest declines.
The Culprit: FAFSA Fiasco
Experts point to last year’s botched rollout of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) as the primary cause of this decline. The new FAFSA system was intended to improve access to financial aid, but its implementation was marred by technical issues and user frustration. As a result, many students were deterred from applying for financial aid and, subsequently, enrolling in college.
Low-Income Students Disproportionately Affected
The declines in first-year student enrollment were most significant at four-year colleges that serve low-income students. At these institutions, first-year student enrollment dropped by more than 10%. This is particularly concerning, as these students often rely heavily on financial aid to pursue higher education.
Other Contributing Factors
While the FAFSA fiasco was the primary cause, other factors contributed to the decline in college enrollment. The Supreme Court’s ruling against affirmative action may have also played a role, particularly in the enrollment of underrepresented minority students at highly selective colleges. Additionally, rising college costs and ballooning student debt balances are causing more students to question the value of a college education.
FAFSA Completion Rates: A Key Indicator
Submitting a FAFSA is a strong predictor of whether a high school senior will attend college. Seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to enroll in college directly after high school. However, FAFSA completion rates are also an indicator of students’ intent to re-enroll, particularly among low-income undergraduates.
A Setback for Higher Education
The decline in college enrollment is a significant setback for higher education. While the 2025-26 FAFSA opened ahead of schedule with only minor issues, it will be harder to reach students who opted out of college this year. Moreover, the rising cost of a four-year degree and stagnant Pell Grant awards are making it increasingly difficult for students to afford college.
The Future of Higher Education
As the higher education landscape continues to evolve, it’s essential to address the underlying issues driving the decline in college enrollment. By improving access to financial aid, addressing affordability concerns, and promoting the value of a college education, we can work towards increasing college enrollment rates and ensuring that higher education remains within reach for all students.
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