Global M&A Volumes Poised to Reach New Heights in 2025
Top dealmakers are predicting a surge in global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) volumes next year, with expectations reaching a four-year high of over $4 trillion. This optimism is largely driven by the promise of a more business-friendly environment under the new U.S. administration, characterized by reduced regulation and lower corporate taxes.
A Shift in Deal-Making Dynamics
According to Daniel Wolf, M&A partner at Kirkland & Ellis, the pace of interest rate drops is slowing, and the threat of tariff wars is introducing an element of unpredictability in deal-making. “You have to brace yourself for more unpredictability,” he warns.
Antitrust Enforcement: A Key Driver of M&A Activity
Jay Hofmann, co-head of M&A at JPMorgan, believes that antitrust enforcement will become more accommodating under the new administration, leading to a more favorable environment for deal-making. The prospect of reduced regulatory burdens and lower taxes is expected to boost economic growth and M&A activity.
Regional Trends and Insights
Dan Grabos, head of Americas M&A at Barclays, notes that 2024 has been a unique year, with transformational deals dominating the first quarter, followed by a resurgence in European deal-making in the second quarter. Asia-Pacific, excluding China, saw significant activity in the third quarter, while private equity drove deal-making in the fourth quarter.
Alison Harding-Jones, global head of M&A at Deutsche Bank, expects a pickup in deal-making activity, driven by political stability and controlled inflation. She predicts increased cross-border transactions between the U.S. and Europe, partly to offset tariff concerns.
Sector-Specific Trends and Opportunities
Samson Lo, co-head of Asia-Pacific M&A at UBS, believes that Trump’s proposed tariffs could trigger consolidation in sectors such as steel and solar. However, he expects cross-border transactions to rebound, driven by corporates’ and investors’ confidence.
John Collins, global co-head of M&A at Morgan Stanley, is cautiously optimistic about the outlook, citing the need to navigate geopolitical uncertainties affecting cross-border deals.
Transformational Deals and Strategic Growth
Nestor Paz-Galindo, global co-head of M&A at UBS, highlights the growing trend of companies seeking to alter their geographic footprint or exit certain end-markets. These deals are focused on accelerating corporate strategy and achieving clarity, rather than mere consolidation.
Benoit D’Angelin, founder & CEO of D’Angelin & Company, notes that European clients are seeking scale to compete globally and avoid potential tariffs.
Stephen Pick, head of M&A for EMEA at Barclays, observes that companies are prioritizing M&A to deliver growth, and boards are increasingly focused on capital rotation strategies to simplify equity stories and focus on core businesses.
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