Tesla’s Q4 Performance: A Critical Juncture for the EV Giant
As the fourth quarter comes to a close, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers are under scrutiny. Despite a 5% sequential decline in insurance registrations in China, the company is still on track for a strong quarterly performance. With just one week left in the quarter, Tesla’s registrations in China are up 12% compared to last quarter and 13% year-over-year.
A Strong Finish to the Year
Tesla’s year-to-date China registrations, which lagged earlier this year, turned positive in the third quarter and are now up about 7.5% compared to the same time frame in 2023. The company has extended incentives and discounts on the Model 3 and Model Y, and reports suggest that the revamped Model Y will begin production in the first half of 2025.
Analyst Expectations
Barclays estimates Tesla’s total Q4 deliveries at 515,000 units, which would represent year-over-year delivery growth compared to 1.8 million in 2023. The firm believes this will “keep stock’s narrative momentum strong.” However, they also note that a light near-term volume miss “would likely do little to dampen” TSLA’s rally, fueled by autonomous vehicle and artificial intelligence.
Tesla’s Ambitious Goals
Tesla expects “slight” vehicle deliveries growth this year, but with the end of the fourth quarter fast approaching, the company needs to deliver 514,925 units in Q4 to meet its predictions. Chief Executive Elon Musk has proclaimed that vehicle sales could grow “20%-30%” in 2025.
Stock Performance
Tesla’s stock has been on a tear, rising 71% since Trump’s election win, as investors speculate that self-driving is coming soon. Despite last week’s decline, TSLA is still above its 21-day line and 50-day moving average. Shares are still in a huge uptrend and due for some consolidation.
Industry Rankings
Tesla stock ranks first in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group, with a 93 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 97 Relative Strength Rating and a 78 EPS Rating.
What’s Next for Tesla?
As the company prepares to report full Q4 vehicle delivery data on or around Jan. 2, investors will be watching closely to see if Tesla can shatter its previous delivery record and propel the company to yearly unit delivery growth.
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