Tesla Shares in Focus Ahead of Q4 Deliveries Report
As the week begins, all eyes will be on Tesla’s stock performance, following two consecutive days of losses. The electric vehicle maker’s fourth-quarter deliveries report, expected to be released on Thursday, will be a key factor in shaping investor sentiment.
Chart Pattern Signals Uptrend Continuation
Tesla’s stock has consolidated within a pennant, a chart pattern indicating a continuation of the current uptrend. This formation suggests that the stock is poised to break out higher, driven by its strong momentum.
Measuring the Upside Potential
To forecast a potential upside price target, we can apply the measured move technique. By calculating the distance of the impulsive move higher that preceded the pennant and adding it to the pattern’s top trendline, we arrive at a target of $615. This level could attract investors looking to lock in profits.
Key Support Levels to Watch
During pullbacks, investors should keep a close eye on key support levels around $360 and $300. The $360 level, currently just above the upward sloping 50-day moving average, may provide support near the ascending triangle’s top trend line. A close below this area could lead to a retest of the $300 level, a psychological round number and the stock’s prominent July 2023 swing high.
Wall Street Expectations
Wall Street analysts predict Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries to come in around 510,000 units, representing 10% growth from the prior quarter and a 5% improvement from a year earlier. Since the presidential election, Tesla shares have surged over 70% on expectations that CEO Elon Musk’s ties with President-elect Donald Trump and growing influence in Washington will benefit the automaker’s autonomous driving ambitions.
Interest Rate Impact
High interest rates could weigh on vehicle sales, as most buyers finance their purchases. The Federal Reserve’s decision to slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025 may have contributed to Tesla’s recent losses, with the stock down nearly 7% over the last two trading sessions.
Technical Analysis
Tesla’s relative strength index (RSI) has continued to fall since topping out near the stock’s all-time high in mid-December, but remains above 50, indicating healthy price momentum. The stock’s trend has been sharply higher for several weeks, breaking out from an ascending triangle in early December.
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