Critical Minerals in High Demand: Antimony Prices Soar Amid China’s Export Ban
The global market for critical materials is undergoing a significant shift, driven by growing trade tensions and China’s latest export ban. As a result, antimony prices are expected to reach record levels, with consumers scrambling to find alternative supplies.
A Perfect Storm: Supply Shortage and Export Ban
Last month, China banned the export of critical minerals, including gallium, germanium, and antimony, to the United States. This move has sent antimony prices skyrocketing, with the metal currently trading between $39,500-40,000 per metric ton in Rotterdam. In 2024 alone, prices surged by a staggering 250%. Traders predict that prices will continue to climb, potentially exceeding $40,000 per ton, as the global supply shortage worsens.
China’s Dominance in Critical Minerals
China is the world’s largest producer of antimony, accounting for nearly 50% of global supplies, which totaled 83,000 tons last year, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The country’s export ban is seen as a strategic move to consolidate mineral production internally. However, this decision has left a significant gap in the global supply chain, which traders are struggling to fill.
Diversifying Supply Chains: A Challenging Task
While the U.S. has made efforts to diversify its supply chains away from China, buying more from Southeast Asia, it remains unclear how the country will fill the gap left by China in the near term. “The U.S. has already diversified its supply chains away from China where possible, buying more from southeast Asia,” said Ellie Saklatvala, head of non-ferrous metals pricing at Argus. “However, it is unclear in the near-term how they will be able to fill the gap now left by China.”
Market Reaction: Bullish Pressure Expected
The export ban has created a bullish market, with traders exploiting the situation to drive prices up. “Still markets are made of people and not only of fundamentals, therefore some bullish pressure is expected as traders exploit the ban to move prices up,” said Theo D. Ruas, Global Sales Manager, Metals & Compounds at Indium Corporation. The ban has highlighted the importance of securing additional supply outside of China, with self-sufficiency becoming a short-term goal for the U.S. government.
What’s Next? Potential Targets for Export Curbs
China’s dominance in critical minerals has raised concerns about which other metals could be targeted for export curbs. One trader speculated that Bismuth and Manganese could be next on the list. As the global market continues to evolve, one thing is certain – the demand for critical minerals will only continue to grow, driving prices to new heights.
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