World Stock Watch

Freight Market Update: Shippers Struggle to Gain Traction

The FreightWaves Supply Chain Pricing Power Index remains stagnant at 40, indicating that shippers still hold the negotiating power in the market. As we dive into the new year, the freight market is slowly recovering from the holiday season, but tender volumes are still lagging behind.

Tender Volumes: A Sluggish Start to the Year

Coming out of the holidays, tender volumes have taken time to recover, and the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) is down 3.74% compared to last month. Although the OTVI rose 24% over the past week, this increase is largely due to soft comparisons. When compared to the same time last year, tender volumes are down 3.2%.

Contract Load Accepted Volume: A Slightly Smaller Increase

The Contract Load Accepted Volume (CLAV) index, which measures accepted load volumes moving under contracted agreements, rose 23.7% week over week. However, CLAV is still down 6.6% year over year.

Retail Sales: A Bright Spot in the Market

Bank of America’s recent card spending report showed a 0.7% month-over-month increase and a 2.2% year-over-year increase in credit and debit card spending per household. This week’s retail sales report is expected to show continued growth in spending, although some areas may experience a pullback due to seasonal adjustments.

Freight Markets: A Mixed Bag

The vast majority of freight markets have seen growth in tender volumes over the past week, with 130 out of 135 markets tracked within SONAR reporting higher volumes. However, the largest increases came from smaller freight markets, which may not have a significant impact on the overall freight market.

Mode-Specific Trends

• Dry Van: The dry van market faces continued headwinds in 2025, with van volumes well below where they were this time last year. The Van Outbound Tender Volume Index increased by 26.41% over the past week but is down 6.44% month over month.
• Reefer: The reefer market remains resilient, with the Reefer Outbound Tender Volume Index increasing by 22.2% over the past week and up 3.27% compared to this time last month. Reefer volumes are up over 9% compared to this time last year.
• Flatbed: The flatbed market continues to be the laggard, with the Flatbed Outbound Tender Reject Index falling by 650 basis points over the past week to 9.34%, up just 198 bps compared to this time last year.

Tender Rejection Rates: A Sign of a Tightening Market

Tender rejection rates have increased over the past week, with the Outbound Tender Reject Index rising by 44 basis points to 7.57%. This increase is a positive sign for a market that is transitioning to a tighter state. Compared to this time last year, tender rejection rates are up 336 bps.

Spot Rates: Stable at Elevated Levels

With tender rejection rates increasing, carriers have been able to keep spot rates stable at elevated levels compared to where they were for much of 2024. The National Truckload Index was unchanged over the past week at $2.49, 11 cents per mile higher than it was this time last year.

Contract Rates: A Positive Sign for Carriers

Initially reported dry van contract rates, which exclude fuel, continued to rise as the data captures the increases associated with the holidays. Rates are up 3 cents per mile over the past week to $2.41, flat compared to this time last year. The spread between the NTIL and dry van contract rates is trending back to pre-pandemic levels, a sign that the market is moving to a more carrier-friendly environment.