Unlikely Path Ahead for Proposed Constitutional Amendment
A recently introduced constitutional amendment aimed at allowing President Donald Trump to serve a third term in the White House faces significant hurdles, according to a Harvard Law School professor. The proposal, put forth by Rep. Andy Ogles, a Tennessee Republican, would permit presidents to be elected for a third term only if their first two terms were nonconsecutive.
The Math Behind the Amendment
To pass, the amendment would require a two-thirds majority vote in both the House and Senate, followed by ratification in three-fourths of the states. This translates to 290 “yes” votes in the House, 67 in the Senate, and approval in 38 states. Given the current political landscape, with only 218 Republican representatives, 53 Republican senators, and 28 Republican-controlled state legislatures, the amendment’s chances of success are slim.
A Daunting Task
Passing a constitutional amendment is already a challenging task, even with broad public support. However, Ogles’ proposal would face an even higher bar, as it is unlikely to garner significant Democratic support in Congress or the state legislatures. According to Professor Stephen Sachs, “it is impossibly difficult” to imagine the amendment receiving the necessary votes.
A Lack of Appetite
When asked if there would be an appetite in Congress or the states for an amendment allowing a third elected term for presidents who already had two consecutive terms, Sachs was unequivocal: “No.” The White House has not commented on whether Trump supports Ogles’ amendment.
A Historical Context
The last time the Constitution was amended was in 1992, with the ratification of the 27th Amendment. This amendment bars pay raises for members of Congress from taking effect until after an election for House members. The 26th Amendment, which granted 18-year-olds the right to vote, was ratified in 1971.
A Long Shot
In conclusion, while Ogles’ proposal has garnered attention, its chances of passage are extremely low. The amendment’s fate will likely be decided by the political realities of the current Congress and state legislatures.
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