Bird Flu Death Sparks Hope for Moderna’s Vaccine Development
The recent report of the first bird flu death in the US has sent Moderna’s stock (MRNA) on a rollercoaster ride, with shares surging over 10% on Tuesday only to plummet by more than 6% early Wednesday. This volatility comes as the company’s development of an mRNA H5N1 vaccine takes center stage.
Government Funding Boosts Vaccine Development
In July 2024, Moderna received a significant boost when it was awarded $176 million from the US government to advance its vaccine development. This funding came in response to an outbreak of the virus in cows, which infected three dairy workers and raised concerns about a potential human outbreak.
Bird Flu Cases on the Rise
As of January, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 66 confirmed cases of H5N1 in the US since 2024. While the CDC maintains that the risk to the general public remains low, individuals with job-related or recreational exposures to infected birds or animals are at greater risk of infection.
Moderna’s Post-Pandemic Struggles
After experiencing a massive surge in revenue following the development of its COVID-19 vaccine, Moderna has struggled to maintain momentum in a post-pandemic world. The company’s revenue fell 64% to just below $7 billion in 2023, and it reported a loss of roughly $12 per share.
Wall Street Expectations
Despite this week’s uptick, Moderna shares are down nearly 60% from last year. Wall Street analysts expect the company to report a loss of around $9 per share for the fiscal year 2024, with sales halving from the prior year. However, analysts see shares rising to $74 over the next 12 months, implying a 56% gain from their current level.
Other Vaccine Makers See Gains
The news of the bird flu death also boosted shares of other companies developing mRNA bird flu shots. Novavax stock (NVAX) surged nearly 11% on Tuesday, while German biotech firm CureVac (CVAC) rose more than 4%. CureVac is collaborating with Indian pharma giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) on its vaccine development. Pfizer stock (PFE) ticked up a modest 0.9%, while GSK itself dropped 1%.
Uptick in COVID-19 Cases Supports Vaccine Makers
An increase in COVID-19 cases reported by the CDC also helped prop up vaccine makers earlier this week, providing a much-needed boost to the industry. As the world continues to grapple with the threat of infectious diseases, companies like Moderna are poised to play a critical role in developing life-saving vaccines.
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