Eli Lilly’s Q4 Guidance Misses Expectations, Shares Plummet
Eli Lilly’s stock took a hit on Tuesday, plummeting over 6% after the company announced revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024 that fell short of Wall Street expectations. Despite the miss, the revised guidance still represents a significant 45% increase from the same quarter in 2023.
Revised Guidance: A Mixed Bag
Lilly revised its revenue guidance down 5% to $13.5 billion, missing consensus by $500 million. However, the company also provided full-year 2024 guidance of $45 billion, a 32% increase from 2023. The revised guidance was attributed to slower-than-expected growth in the US incretin market and lower-than-anticipated channel inventory at year-end.
CEO David Ricks Weighs In
In a statement, Lilly CEO David Ricks acknowledged the company’s progress on its manufacturing build-out, noting that U.S. supply across all doses of tirzepatide was available throughout Q4. Ricks emphasized that the company continues to make strides in its manufacturing capabilities.
Analysts Weigh In: A Mixed Reaction
The stock’s decline surprised some experts and analysts, who had expected a softer Q4. Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger noted that although the results were disappointing, he expects 2025+ financial performance and pipeline news flow to be encouraging. JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott agreed, stating that the focus will shift to the ongoing ramp in RXs, the newly issued 2025 guidance, and upcoming catalysts.
Blockbuster Products: Guidance Misses Consensus
Lilly’s most-watched blockbuster products, GLP-1 tirzepatide products Mounjaro and Zepbound, are expected to miss consensus as well. Guidance for diabetes drug Mounjaro is $3.5 billion, while weight loss drug Zepbound is expected to bring in $1.9 billion for the quarter. Despite this, prescription tracking data from IQVIA shows promising growth for both products, with Zepbound’s year-over-year weekly average up 241% and Mounjaro up 51%.
A Shift in Focus
As the company moves forward, analysts expect the focus to shift from Q4 dynamics to the ongoing ramp in RXs, the newly issued 2025 guidance, and upcoming catalysts. With Lilly’s pipeline news flow and financial performance expected to be encouraging, the company’s future prospects remain promising.
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